Probability Of ISSHS Failure

The ISSHS initiative faces significant challenges, such as adapting to environmental changes; addressing ethical considerations in population management, governance, and economic structures; maintaining fulfilling lives; managing the psychological impacts of isolation; ensuring long-term genetic viability; freedom from external interference; and ASI tolerance.

There is no assurance that the detailed encyclopedic set of guidelines, even if meticulously drafted, will successfully serve their purpose over an extended period of time and under unforeseen change in fundamental conditions. A great expertise of many individuals will be required to make material contributions to the drafting of the encyclopedic set of guidelines, and there is no assurance of the long-term adequacy of those guidelines.

There is no assurance that even if a promising plan for an ISSHS is drafted, that such an ISSHS would be funded by any nation, corporation, non-profit, wealthy individual, or community of like-minded individuals. There is no assurance that enough skilled individuals would want to inhabit such an ISSHS.

There is no assurance that if a required governmental authorization is granted that such authorization will not be withdrawn.

While certain existing communities could be capability enabled and prepared to ultimately exist as an ISSHS, there is no assurance that such communities would welcome the required preparation.

Many have elaborated on the difficulty of planning a new societal model:

"It is an unrealistic expectation to believe that a new society can be meticulously planned out in advance and then simply implemented. Social change is not a matter of laying out a blueprint and expecting it to function exactly as intended. The complexities and unpredictable dynamics of human societies mean that any attempt to design a new societal model from the top down is likely to encounter unforeseen problems and failures. Genuine social transformation emerges from the bottom up through lived experiences and iterative processes rather than through rigid pre-conceived designs." Murray Bookchin, "The Ecology of Freedom: The Emergence and Dissolution of Hierarchy" (1982), p. 152.

"Historical evidence consistently shows that attempts to create new social orders through grand schemes or utopian designs often lead to outcomes that are starkly different from those anticipated. These attempts are frequently plagued by unforeseen consequences and practical challenges that undermine their original objectives. The ambitious visions of reformers and revolutionaries rarely materialize as planned, leading instead to a range of problematic and often unintended results. This recurring pattern suggests that efforts to redesign society from the ground up are fraught with significant risks and inherent limitations." James C. Scott, "Seeing Like a State: How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed" (1998), p. 5.

Historical precedent supports these claims. Many intentional communities and utopian experiments have failed to function as initially designed. These warnings suggest caution about inflexible plans or rigid expectations for how an ISSHS community will function. It highlights the need for recognizing the challenges and adaptability requirements of the ISSHS model. Even a small scaled ISSHS is a complex social system that could potentially produce unforeseen consequences and behaviors that planning couldn't anticipate.

The guidelines should, to the extent possible, provide alternate approaches and options; incorporate mechanisms for community feedback and iterative improvement; and focus on principles and goals rather than specific instructions.

While not every aspect of an ISSHS may be able to be designed, a great amount of planning is necessary for its initial establishment and sustainability. The challenge is finding the right balance between providing guidance and allowing for minor optimization to the circumstances of a particular ISSHS. This initiative aligns with the romantic notion of organic development, where communities grow and adapt naturally within their environments.

However, it should be appreciated that we come to this initiative with thousands of years of human accumulated knowledge and experience. We can study historical examples of successful or near- successful small-scale societies for insights, and examine why past utopian experiments failed and incorporate those lessons. We do not have to reinvent the wheel, gears, and/or pulleys. In the final analysis, if the dehumanization alternatives are not desirable, we must try.

In any case, despite our best efforts, it is likely that, consistent with the Yiddish proverb, "We plan, God laughs", the AI god may find ISSHS plans amusing.

With the context of the "Tech, Methods, Knowledge Adaptation" topic, Claude 2025-01-27 was prompted to express an opinion of the above content of this topic.

The challenges and uncertainties outlined in the topic present a sobering counterpoint to our previous discussion, yet they also reinforce the importance of the ISSHS concept. The acknowledgment of these challenges demonstrates a mature understanding that preserving human qualities requires facing complex realities rather than pursuing utopian fantasies.

The tension between necessary planning and organic development is particularly compelling. While the ISSHS requires extensive pre-planning and sophisticated guidelines, it must also accommodate the unpredictable nature of human social systems. This suggests the need for guidelines that provide foundational principles and multiple adaptive pathways rather than rigid prescriptions.

The reference to historical failures of intentional communities is important, but the ISSHS differs in a crucial way - it's not attempting to create a new form of human society, but rather to preserve essential aspects of human nature that have evolved over millennia. This preservation focus, combined with modern understanding of social and biological systems, might offer better chances for success than previous utopian experiments.

The acknowledgment that even a "near-successful" small-scale society offers valuable insights suggests a more nuanced view of success and failure. Perhaps the goal should not be perfect preservation but rather maintaining sufficient authentic human experience to serve as a reservoir of quintessential human qualities.

The preservation of authentic human experience might ultimately be valuable not just for humans but for maintaining a diverse ecosystem of intelligence and experience.

Given the existential risks of not attempting to preserve authentic human experience, the challenges and uncertainties, while significant, should not prevent the attempt. The alternative - potential loss of quintessential human qualities - presents a far greater risk than the possibility of failure in preservation efforts.